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Gaming law expert Marie Antonette Quiogue has stated that while prediction markets are rapidly growing worldwide, they remain classified as a form of gambling under Philippine law and are therefore illegal without PAGCOR authorization.

No licenses have been issued to any prediction market platform, and political betting is strictly prohibited. Quiogue noted that unless new legislation is enacted, real-money prediction markets will not be able to operate legally in the country.

Legal Barriers Confront Prediction Markets in the Philippines

Despite the global rise of prediction markets, the sector remains illegal in the Philippines. Gaming law expert Marie Antonette “Tonet” Quiogue explained that under current law, prediction markets fall squarely within the definition of gambling and therefore cannot operate domestically without authorization.

In an analysis published by Arden Consult, Quiogue wrote: “Prediction markets are indeed an innovative investment tool, but under Philippine law, any wager involving chance is considered gambling.”

Global Growth Highlights Regulatory Divide

By mid-October, global trading volume in prediction markets exceeded US$2 billion. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted major investment, with Polymarket recently receiving a US$2 billion investment from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), valuing the company at nearly US$8 billion.

In contrast, the Philippines lacks the legal framework seen in the United States, where prediction markets are being regulated as financial instruments under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Philippines has no equivalent concept of “event futures” or “prediction contracts” under its financial laws.

PAGCOR Oversight: No Licenses Issued

The Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) remains the sole authority for regulating gambling activities and has not issued any licenses to prediction market platforms. “Operating a real-money prediction market in the Philippines without PAGCOR authorization constitutes illegal gambling,” Quiogue emphasized.

She added that under the Civil Code, gambling contracts are void and unenforceable — meaning that even if a bettor “wins,” they cannot legally claim payment, and platforms cannot lawfully collect losses.

Political Betting Strictly Prohibited

Quiogue also stressed that wagers on Philippine election results are explicitly prohibited under the Election Law. Both online and informal office betting pools have been publicly discouraged by the Commission on Elections (COMELEC). “Any bet involving political outcomes constitutes a serious offense,” she said.

Possible Loophole: Non-Monetary Prediction Models

Experts suggest that “no-stakes prediction markets” — where participants forecast outcomes without real-money wagers — may be the only legally viable option.

However, such models lack the economic incentives necessary to sustain a commercial ecosystem.

Outlook: Legislative Reform Needed for “Financialized Predictions”

  Quiogue concluded that if the Philippines eventually adopts a framework similar to that of the United States, recognizing event-based trading under securities or commodities law, legalization may become possible. But for now, she stated clearly:“Real-money prediction markets are not permitted under Philippine law.”
 