The proposal seeks to replace the current state-by-state tax regime, where rates range from 18% to 27%, with a unified structure consisting of a 12% federal tax and a 5% local levy.

While the draft offers the clearest outline yet of Brazil’s future gambling regulation, it has also exposed deep divisions among the country’s 26 states.

One-Size Tax Rate, Diverging State Reactions

The most immediate impact of the proposal is a major reshaping of tax distribution.

Wealthier states such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro have voiced strong opposition. Both governors warned that the new framework could reduce annual state revenues by up to BRL 3.8 billion, posing significant risks to local budgets.

In contrast, less-developed states, particularly in the north, have welcomed the reform. They argue that a lower and standardized tax rate would attract betting operators, stimulate investment, and create jobs, offering new economic opportunities.

The uncertainty has already affected capital flows. According to the Brazilian Betting Association (BJL), roughly USD 1.1 billion in gambling-related investment has been put on hold as operators wait for regulatory clarity.

Key Features: Online vs Land-Based and Social Contribution

Beyond tax rates, the draft introduces several notable design elements.

For the first time, it explicitly differentiates between online and land-based betting. Online operations would be taxed at 14%, while land-based betting would face a lower rate of 9.5%. This distinction reflects expectations around digital growth, while acknowledging the higher operating costs of physical venues.

The proposal also introduces a “social return mechanism,” requiring operators to allocate 3.5% of gross revenue toward public sports infrastructure. By linking betting revenue directly to social benefits, policymakers aim to improve public acceptance of the industry.

Legislative Process Continues, Transition Period Likely

The proposal has now entered the legislative review stage. A special parliamentary committee is expected to hold hearings next week, with the full legislative process likely extending into the second quarter of 2026.

Market analysts widely expect a compromise outcome. To ease resistance from high-revenue states, lawmakers may introduce a gradual transition period of three to five years, giving both governments and operators time to adjust.

The battle over how Brazil’s gambling tax revenue is divided is only just beginning.