However, a new study by LCA Consultoria, commissioned by the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), points to a looming challenge: the tax burden on the sector could surge from 32% to 42% by 2033 due to the ongoing tax reform. This trend sparks deep concern among stakeholders who have already paid steep R$30 million upfront license fees. The increase stems primarily from new taxes like IBS and CBS replacing existing ones like PIS/Cofins and ISS. Eric Brasil, director at LCA, warned that this places the sector 14 percentage points above the Ministry of Finance's proposed 28% baseline rate, while social contributions will also rise from 13% to 15%. Plínio Lemos Jorge, president of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), warned that changing rules mid-game breaks trust and could eventually make legal operations unviable.

Beyond threatening economic sustainability, excessive taxation risks driving consumers to the illegal market. André Gelfi, director and co-founder of IBJR, explained that increased costs passed on to consumers will push them toward pirate sites. He stressed that curbing the illegal market should be the priority, as the study shows that every 5 percentage points increase in market formalization could generate roughly R$1 billion in additional public revenue. Another major point of contention is the proposed "sin tax" (Selective Tax) set for 2027. Gelfi argued that this reflects a misunderstanding of the industry, attempting to apply the logic of state lotteries—where the government takes the lion's share—to fixed-odds betting, which operates on low profit margins and high operating costs. The coming years will be telling in determining whether Brazil can maintain a competitive and regulated market while achieving its revenue potential.